Germany’s Mainstream Parties Face A Reckoning

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party won a state election outright for the first time ever, topping the vote in Thuringia on September 1, 2024, with 32.8% support.

Quick Take

Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished first in Thuringia with 32.8% of the vote, its first-ever win in a German state election.
AfD came within one point of first place in Saxony, taking 30.6% against the ruling CDU’s 31.9%.
A brand-new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), grabbed 15.8% in Thuringia and 11.8% in Saxony in its debut run.
Germany’s traditional governing parties lost significant ground in both states, shaking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition.
No easy path to power exists for AfD because mainstream parties refuse to form governments with it.

A Historic First-Place Finish in Thuringia

Voters in Thuringia handed Alternative for Germany its first-ever top spot in a state election. The party pulled in 32.8% of the vote, a jump of 9.4 points from 2019. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in second with 23.6%, and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance took third at 15.8%, according to election results reported that night.

The win marked a turning point. No far-right party had led a German state election since World War Two. Thuringia’s result put Alternative for Germany’s regional leader, Björn Höcke, in position to demand a real say in forming the next government, even though rival parties immediately ruled out working with him.

A Near Miss in Saxony

Just miles away, Alternative for Germany came close to repeating its Thuringia performance. In Saxony, the party took 30.6% of the vote, trailing the CDU by just 1.3 points at 31.9%. The tight margin showed the party’s strength was not limited to one state but stretched across the eastern region on the same election night.

Saxony’s incumbent premier held on to his party’s lead, but the closeness of the race sent a clear signal. Alternative for Germany now competes as a top contender in multiple eastern German states, not just as a fringe protest option.

A New Party Shakes Up the Race

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a party formed only months before the vote, became an instant power player. It won 15.8% in Thuringia and 11.8% in Saxony, securing 15 seats in each state parliament. Named after its founder, a former left-wing figure who broke away to build a new movement, the party mixes tighter immigration positions with left-leaning economic policies.

Its rapid rise means two outsider parties, not one, reshaped both elections. Coverage of the vote noted that Alternative for Germany and the Wagenknecht Alliance drew support from many of the same frustrated voters, even though the two parties sit on opposite ends of traditional left-right politics.

Established Parties Lose Their Grip

Germany’s long-dominant parties took a beating. In Thuringia, the Left party fell to 13.1%, while the CDU dropped to 23.6%. Chancellor Scholz’s own coalition partners fared even worse across both states, deepening doubts about his national government’s stability heading into the next federal election.

German political leaders reacted with alarm. Commentary from major broadcasters described the results as a direct challenge to how coalitions get built, since the usual math of combining two or three mainstream parties no longer adds up to a majority in either state.

https://twitter.com/RizwanHashme/status/2097292943992459423

Power Without a Path to Government

A strong vote share does not guarantee governing power. Germany’s mainstream parties maintain a long-standing refusal, often called a “firewall,” to form coalitions with Alternative for Germany. That means despite finishing first in Thuringia, the party still needs other parties willing to negotiate, and none have agreed to do so.

The practical result is a governing puzzle. Leaders in both states must now cobble together coalitions from parties that together hold fewer seats than the combined strength of the two outsider parties. Whether that produces a stable government or repeated deadlock remains an open question for German democracy heading forward.