$50 Billion Jet Saga: Canada’s Costly Gamble

A formation of military jet fighters flying in a clear blue sky

Canada slashes its F-35 commitment from 88 jets to just 16 firm plus 14 hedged, risking NORAD readiness amid Trump-era trade pressures and a Swedish alternative pitch.

Story Snapshot

Canada locked into 16 F-35s with deliveries starting 2026; payments begun for long-lead items on 14 more, totaling about 30 jets committed.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government reviews the $27.7 billion deal for 88 fighters, eyeing Saab Gripen for local assembly and cost savings.
Shift highlights tensions between US interoperability needs and Canadian demands for jobs, sovereignty, and lower lifecycle costs.
RCAF proceeds “full steam ahead” on F-35 training despite uncertainty on remaining 58 aircraft.
Full 88-jet option remains viable under $50 billion total, but mixed fleet could complicate logistics.

Procurement History and Reversal

Canada signed a deal in January 2023 for 88 F-35A Lightning II fighters to replace aging CF-18 Hornets by 2032. The Future Fighter Capability Project aimed for NORAD integration and NATO roles. Conservative PM Stephen Harper initiated F-35 interest in 2010 for 65 jets, but Liberals under Justin Trudeau canceled it in 2015, pursuing Super Hornets that failed over trade disputes. F-35 won a 2019 competition on stealth and interoperability merits.

Current Commitments Under Review

Deputy Defence Minister Stefani Beck confirmed in October 2025 that Canada commits to at least 16 F-35s, with $7 billion approved including support. Payments for long-lead items on 14 additional jets began late 2025, signaling momentum toward 30 total. First deliveries arrive in 2026 for RCAF training at a USAF base. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly seeks enhanced offsets from Lockheed Martin or Saab.

Saab Gripen Emerges as Alternative

Saab pitches Gripen E/F for a mixed fleet, offering Canadian assembly, intellectual property transfer, and lower costs at about $1.2 billion per unit lifecycle versus F-35’s $1.7 billion. Former Defence Minister Bill Blair noted viability of local builds in March 2025. Review stems from Carney’s post-2025 election mandate amid US tariffs under President Trump’s second term, prioritizing economic benefits over full reliance on American jets.

Strategic Risks and Implications

A mixed fleet risks NORAD logistics and integration with USAF F-35s, widening RCAF gaps as CF-18s retire. Sunk costs on 30 jets approach $7 billion plus, with backing out costly. Gripen promises $10 billion lifecycle savings and jobs, appealing to sovereignty concerns, but lacks F-35 stealth. Carney’s government balances taxpayer funds against alliance pressures, echoing past procurement scandals driven by politics over defense needs.

Analysts view payments for 14 jets as locking in most of the original scope, making a full pivot unlikely. This saga underscores how elite decisions in Ottawa prioritize industrial offsets and trade posturing, leaving RCAF readiness vulnerable while Canadians foot the bill for indecision.